12:43 PM LINK
Oil Explorations
Welcome to the New Year. It's time for a new theme. A couple days ago in Denver I was at the Tattered Cover Bookstore in lower downtown and went on a modest buying spree. The Tattered Cover, like Powell's in Portland, is one of the great independent book sellers in America. From now on, it will be my standard policy whenever possible to link to either of those two sites for books.
One of the books I picked up there is Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes. It was published in 2001 by the Princeton University Press.
I have not begun the book yet. I have only read the inside flap. In summary, the book is about how a geophysicist named M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would peak and begin declining in the early 1970's. He was roundly criticized at the time, but he turned out to be very accurate. The actual year of the peak of U.S. production was 1970.
Although Hubbert passed away a couple years ago, recently several petroleum industry analysts used his same method to determine when world oil production would begin declining. The answers they got ranged from 2004 to 2008, i.e., during George W. Bush's upcoming second term.
Like Hubbert's, these predictions have been ignored by the major media.
When I read this on the book jacket I was startled, because only a few days before, I had been looking at the graph in the newspaper which showed that the world oil production would keep climbing well through this century at a steady pace to keep up with world demand.
So I bought the book in an effort to understand the truth. As a physicist, I feel an obligation to apply my training in technical and mathematical subjects to make judgements as to credibility of the evidence.
Therefore I have determined to read this book over the next two months or so and investigate the claim as much as possible. I will of course be blogging this process on vivacapitalism.
Please come along for the ride. I will attempt to present what I learn in the most nontechnical way possible, understandable by anyone. Since I'm not a petroleum scientist, I will learning along with you.
One thing to note is that since I have a bias toward advocating such issues as Smart Growth and Alternative Fuels, I will be attempting as much as I can to refute Hubbert, not by myself, but by investigating evidence that goes against his thesis.
Ready? Let's see what we find...
Next entry will probably be Jan. 8
one side note: I have already learned that the center for petroleum supply studies at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden is called the M. King Hubbert Center.
another side note: the author of the book, Kenneth S. Deffeyes is a professor emeritus at Princeton and the son of a Shell engineer. If you've read any of John McPhee's books on geology, he is featured in the books as McPhee's guide and mentor of geology.
12:28 AM LINK
I predict 2002 will be very good year for Capitalism.
Now it's time for vacation.
